by Will Evans, Policy Analyst
As conflict escalates in the Middle East, growing numbers of civilians are being forced to flee their homes with early reports showing hundreds of thousands displaced internally in Iran and neighboring countries. Given the pace of escalation, all displacement figures cited here reflect a snapshot in time at the date of publication and will likely continue to change as the crisis unfolds. Early reporting estimates 100,000 people have left Tehran in the first two days of the crisis, but internal displacement reporting from inside Iran is poorly documented given a near-total internet blackout. In Lebanon the picture is clearer, as at least 33,000 Syrian refugees in Lebanon and 3,000 Lebanese having crossed into Syria.
The broader region, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, already hosts nearly 25 million refugees. Many of those displaced in the region have ongoing humanitarian needs, including water, food, shelter, and healthcare. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the rapid escalation of hostilities puts displaced people, as well as host communities, at risk due to intensifying conflict, with potential movements to neighboring countries.
The countries surrounding Iran already play a significant role hosting displaced people, making additional displacements an undue strain on their communities and public services. Afghanistan hosts millions of internally displaced people (IDPs), with UNICEF estimating that over 20 million people require humanitarian assistance. To Iran’s north, Türkiye continues to host around 2.3 million Syrian refugees. Meanwhile, over a million IDPs remain displaced in Iraq. Iran itself hosts at least 1.6 million refugees, most of whom are Afghans.
Beyond the immense humanitarian need in the region, forced displacement of refugees into the European Union could exacerbate political tensions, as the EU is already shifting towards more punitive deportation measures. This dynamic demonstrates the importance of expanding protection and support for refugees and displaced populations, even amidst crisis.
Given these rising regional tensions, here are three things we’re watching:
- Potential for Large-Scale Displacement: As conflict escalates, so does the risk for population displacement in Iran. In its annual analysis of asylum trends, the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) expressed concerns that an ongoing conflict in Iran might lead to refugee movements of an “unprecedented magnitude.” The report was written before the outbreak of war and analyzes trends, not the current conflict, so such a scenario is speculative. For an assessment of current events, the International Organization for Migration’s (IOM) Displacement Tracking Matrix shows that alarming signs of population movement are already emerging.
- The Impact on Children: War and conflict often have a disproportionate effect on children. At least 100 million children are in countries directly impacted by escalating violence in the region and face immediate threats to their well-being, including displacement, physical harm, and trauma. At current writing, an estimated 160 children have reportedly been killed in Iran when an airstrike hit Shajareh Tayyebeh elementary school in Minab and scores of others were injured. The killing and maiming of children, and attacks on schools and hospitals are considered grave violations against children in armed conflict under international law.
- Double Displacement and Protection Concerns: As the conflict widens, populations in neighboring countries may be subjected to double displacement, which is when displaced people are uprooted again. Since March 2, over 300,000 people in Lebanon have been displaced from their homes, including Syrian refugees, according to the Norwegian Refugee Council’s internal estimates. The United Nations has reported nearly 700,000 people forced from their homes, in part due to an evacuation order issued by Israel for the Southern suburbs of Beirut.
At a time of rising displacement, it is important to note that opportunities for durable solutions for those long displaced have continued to shrink globally. Integration prospects for many refugees, particularly Afghans, have been extremely limited, with many being forced to return to Afghanistan. Resettlement opportunities have also declined sharply worldwide, driven in large part by the United States’ decision to suspend and subsequently scale back the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program last year which left tens of thousands of vetted refugees in limbo.
The United States also ended the Lautenberg program, one of the few initiatives providing a lifesaving pathway for persecuted Iranians. In 2004 it was expanded through the Specter Amendment, to include Iranian religious minorities: Jews, Christians, Baha’is, Sabean-Mandaeans, and Zoroastrians. Its termination creates an acute protection gap.
When we look back to the 2003-2011 Iraq War, one key lesson is that destabilizing a country leads to an exodus of people. The 2026 Iran conflict is different in important ways, including that it has drawn in a dozen countries by Day 10. The conflict, at present, is also an air and naval campaign, which creates different displacement patterns than a ground invasion. A large-scale displacement crisis from Iran has not yet arrived, but a protracted conflict increases this risk. The past cannot be rewritten, but if we confront its lessons honestly, we can avoid repeating the same mistakes.
