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Isolationism—What It Means for Refugees in Africa’s Central Sahel

May 8, 2025

In the past five years, three countries in the Central Sahel—Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso—have undergone transformative political changes. All three countries are now led by military juntas. In January 2025, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso formally withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a regional economic bloc. ECOWAS also has a peacekeeping force, which has previously supported counter-terrorism operations.

Political instability and withdrawal from international and regional cooperation have made these countries more vulnerable to armed groups. Violent clashes have endangered countless civilians, and millions are displaced due to conflict, poor governance, and climate events. This backgrounder answers why refugee resettlement is crucial for people fleeing crises in the Central Sahel.

Source: World Food Programme (WFP)

 

Niger: The Breakdown of a Reliable Ally

On July 26, 2023, Niger’s military, led by General Abdourahamane Tiani, overthrew the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum. Under Bazoum, Niger experienced an economic rebound with growth at 11.5 percent in 2022.

Part of the grievance with President Bazoum was his cooperation with France, which controlled and exploited Niger as a French colony until 1960. Even after Niger declared independence, France continued to exploit Niger through control of uranium deposits. When the military junta took over, they replaced French names of historical sites and transferred France’s uranium mine to public ownership. France completely withdrew its troops by the end of 2023.

Until the military coup, Niger was resisting armed group activity comparatively better than its neighbors. The United States also viewed Niger as a key military ally to fight against terrorism in the region. But after the coup, the United States ended aid and partnerships. Niamey also withdrew from security partnerships with the European Union (EU) and the Group of Five for the Sahel (G5 Sahel). Instead, the military junta has turned to China, Russia, Türkiye, Syria, and its neighboring military junta countries.

In the first nine months of 2024, Niger’s military was under attack 51 times. Civilians were killed in the Tillabéri and Tahoua regions in western Niger, and armed groups gained a foothold. Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) caused 598 killings in 2024, over 200 percent more than the year before. On December 5, 2024, 21 people were killed in an armed attack in the “three borders” zone between Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, which was followed with concern by the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights as a matter of regional security.

 

Mali: A Coup Within a Coup

In early 2020, building political frustration resulted in public demonstrations after contested parliamentary elections. When President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta reacted by dissolving the constitutional court and repressing demonstrations, calls for his resignation increased. On August 18, 2020, soldiers from the Malian army arrested Keïta, forced his resignation, and dissolved the Government.

International and regional organizations called for the military junta to return to a democratic order. The African Union (AU) suspended Mali’s membership, and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) called for Keïta’s release. ECOWAS imposed sanctions on Mali and closed neighboring countries’ borders.

On September 25, 2020, the military junta established a transitional government and appointed Bah N’daw, former defense minister, as interim president. The coup leader, Colonel Assimi Goïta, was named Vice-President.

On May 24, 2021, the transitional government was overthrown, and Goïta was named President on June 7. Unlike the 2020 coup, this “coup within a coup” lacked public support. Goïta reassured the UN that Mali would hold elections in February 2022. When the transitional government announced that it would delay elections until 2025, ECOWAS sanctions were upheld.

The breakdown of international cooperation put civilians at increased risk of violence. During the transitional period, deadly attacks by armed groups increased. In March 2022, attacks by the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (now, IS-Sahel) led to 40 civilian deaths and displacement of over 3,600 households in southern Mali.

In June 2023, the military junta called for the removal of UN peacekeepers (MINUSMA) from the country “without delay.” MINUSMA helped counter armed groups and protected civilians. MINUSMA completed its withdrawal from Mali in December 2023.

In September 2024, JNIM reached the capital of Bamako and attacked several sites, including the international airport which houses the military’s main air base.

Insecurity in the “three borders” zone is causing many people to flee. Many of the areas under attack are also impacted by climate events, worsening displacement, and political insecurity. In 2024, flooding of the Niger River affected over 350,000 people and caused mass displacement.

As of February 2025, over 118,000 refugees were registered in Mali, mostly from Burkina Faso. Over 63,000 refugees awaited registration.

 

Burkina Faso: The Failed Promise of Military Leadership

In 2022, Burkina Faso underwent two coups in the span of nine months. In January 2022, President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré was ousted by the military, led by Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba. In September 2022, Damiba was ousted by Captain Ibrahim Traoré, who declared himself head of state. In both coups, military leaders declared that the ousted government could not manage the country’s security crisis.

Traoré announced himself head of a transitional government and promised elections in July 2024. But a month before the promised elections, Traoré declared that he would remain in office for another five years, citing the need for national security.

Despite the announced prioritization on security, civilian deaths due to armed group violence nearly tripled after the coup. While Traoré announced “voluntary” mobilization of volunteers, this action has been criticized as a form of forced conscription of political opponents and journalists.

Military forces have also been accused of human rights violations, including for massacring women and children in Karma in April 2023. Corruption within the military and weak governance are hampering strong responses to armed groups.

Insecurity has led to persistent displacement, disrupting child development and schooling. Displacement has also put children at increased risk of forced military recruitment and child labor. About 770,000 children are left without parental care, and more than 5,000 schools have been forced to close. Around 3.2 million children require humanitarian assistance. Armed clashes and violence are preventing aid delivery that serves as a lifeline for young children and pregnant and breastfeeding women.

 

Refugee Resettlement: Shrinking Options

Forcibly displaced populations in the Sahel region reached 4.7 million in January 2024, including 1.7 million refugees and asylum seekers.

Most of the burden of hosting refugees falls on surrounding countries, where resources are scarce. But third-country refugee resettlement offers a safe and durable solution. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) collaborates with countries to provide international protection to refugees whose lives, liberty, or safety are at risk in the country where they initially sought refuge.

Not all refugees are given the opportunity to resettle. Refugees who are identified as needing resettlement include individuals facing the threat of refoulement or expulsion, women and girls at risk of gender-based violence and discrimination, and individuals who are separated from their families. In the Sahel region, UNHCR reports that the main groups who need resettlement are survivors of violence or torture, women and girls at risk, and individuals in need of legal and physical protection. Effects of climate change and tensions over resources have also caused an increased need.

In 2025, UNHCR projects that 2.9 million refugees will need resettlement, which is half a million more refugees from 2024. In the Central Sahel, 15,000 refugees in Niger, 7,445 refugees in Burkina Faso, and 1,000 refugees in Mali are projected to need resettlement.

The top resettlement countries, however, are not meeting increasing resettlement needs. Countries that have accepted the largest numbers of refugees for resettlement in the past are the United States, Canada, Germany, and Australia. In 2023, 158,700 refugees were resettled to third countries. But most of these countries have not markedly increased their resettlement goals, despite the increased need.

The U.S. Government announced a goal of resettling 125,000 refugees in 2025, the same number as the previous fiscal year. And while countries state their resettlement goals, they are not bound to meet them. Countries often admit refugees at a lower number than their stated goals. In fiscal year 2024, the United States stated a goal of resettling 125,000 refugees but admitted 100,034 refugees. On January 20, 2025, refugee admissions and processing was indefinitely suspended.

Between 2024 and 2025, Germany pledged to resettle 13,100 refugees (or 6,550 refugees each year). In 2023, Germany made the same pledge and admitted 2,352 refugees. On April 8, 2025, DW reported that Germany ordered a temporary halt to refugee resettlement, which the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) confirmed.

Canada resettles the most refugees per capita and resettled 51,081 refugees in 2023. But in October 2024, Canada announced plans to reduce refugee admissions in its 2025-2027 plan. The plan calls for a total reduction of 2,000 refugee admissions from 2025 to 2027.

Of the leading countries for refugee resettlement, Australia is the only one that has committed to expand resettlement pathways. In 2023, Australia resettled 15,223 refugees and increased its admissions goal to 20,000 refugees. Australia committed to gradually increasing resettlement from 2024 to 2025.

 

Recommendation

USCRI calls on all countries to reinvest in Roadmap 2030—a global strategy to increase resettlement spaces and family reunification—and ensure safe resettlement for the world’s most vulnerable refugees.


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